Two from Biotech #sector , one from #utilities, one from #communication, and one from tech
industry with focus on AI.
- $GILD: 15.36%
- $TMUS: 16.50%
- $EXC: 18.73%
- $VRTX: 18.86%
- $PLTR: 22.37%
Be cautious and consider value #stocks over high flyers.
Two from tech #sector , two from #semi conductor, and one from #Fintech industry.
- $TTD: -54.3%
- $MRVL: -46.29%
- $ON: -36.48%
- $DDOG: -32.16%
- $MDB: -29.96%
Be cautious and consider value #stocks over high flyers.
In stock analysis, "Fibonacci" uses the Fibonacci sequence and ratios to identify
potential support and resistance levels, aiding traders in predicting price retracements
and turning points. Key ratios like 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100% are applied in
technical analysis. Our analysis of $NVDA highlights the next key support level at $96.62.
$KO leads with 11% returns, while $JNJ has 5%. This shows the value of diversification.
Opportunities exist; keen eyes and technology help spot them.
$NVDA dropped 30% YTD, while $GS lost 20%. Top 10 has lost in the range of 20-30% of their value
since Jan 1st 2025. The outlook remains bleak and may persist.
All components are down. Gold is down nearly 4%, while S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow are down over 7%.
We are in watch-and-wait mode. Opportunities are forming, but now is the time to focus on understanding
the impact of tariffs on the economy.
All are down and more shocks expected for next couple of months.
- April 2000 (Dot com crash) = -5.8%
- Sept 2001 (9/11 crash) = -4.9%
- Oct 2008 (Global Financial crash) = -9.0%
- Aug 2011 (US Credit Downgrade) = -6.7%
- March 2020 (Covid) = -12.0%
- April 3rd, 2025 = -4.8%
- April 4th, 2025 = -5.7%
This shall pass too and it was a good day for bargain hunters.
Tech ( $VGT), Growth ( $VUG, $SCHG), Total Market ( $VTI, $SPY, $VOO), Dividend ( $VYM, $SCHD),
and Dow 30 ( $DIA) all fell heavily. For some long term investors, it was a buying opportunity for
those waiting for valuations to drop. We agree, but believe tariff implications on the current
market are not yet fully realized. Still, stay invested and continue dollar-cost averaging.
April 3rd, 2025, a day in #stock market history, S&P fell -4.84%, dow by -3.98% and Nasdaq
by -5.97%. Weighted tariff 25% and expected inflation of 3-5% in next 12 months. Next move ?
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings ( $BJ), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings ( $OLLI), Dollar Tree ( $DLTR),
and Dollar General ( $DG). These discount retailers will be heavily impacted by tariffs, as their vendors
are mostly in Asia or Latin America. We expect weighted tariffs of about 25%, causing inflation of
around 5% in the next 12 months. This will drive bargain hunting, boosting these stores. We
prefer $OLLI for its strong growth story, followed by $DG for its decent dividend.
Still, days like today remind investors to diversify and stay invested, as markets eventually recover.
American Express ( $AXP), #Mastercard ( $MA), #Visa ( $V), and #Discover ( $DFS). All four show strong
sales and EPS growth. We prefer Discover and American Express for their intrinsic value, but one or two
should be in every diversified portfolio.
The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (E&P) industry includes companies that explore for and
produce oil and natural gas, focusing on domestic resources to enhance energy security and
economic growth. These companies are: #PrimeEnergy ( $PNRG), #Hess Corporation ( $HES), Canadian
Natural Resources ( $CNQ), #Antero #Midstream ( $AM), and #Blackstone Material ( $BSM). We prefer
$HES for its consistent strong year-over-year sales and EPS growth. Regardless of preference,
#energy should be part of every #diversified #portfolio.
#Clorox ( $CLX), Church & Dwight ( $CHD), Sprouts Farmers Market ( $SPM), Pilgrim's Pride ( $PPC),
and Cal-Maine ( $CALM). We see value in $PPC and $CALM (think egg prices). $SFM, $PPC, and $CALM
have all given returns exceeding 50% in the past year.
Top 9 safe ETFs. These nine ETFs have low expense ratios and nearly double every 5 years.
A mix of them provides stability and resilience to market shocks. SCHD and VYM offer high
dividend yields, while SCHG and VGT focus on growth. These ETFs boast high liquidity and
are managed by top firms like Schwab and Vanguard. Most share common stocks, so a balanced
mix is key—e.g., VOO + VGT covers much of the market. Regular, equal investments beat
lump-sum buying.
Top 5 #stocks with low debt/equity and high return on investment: #UrbanOutfitters
( $URBN), #Ferrari ( $RACE), #KrystalBiotech ( $KRYS), #DoorDash ( $DASH), and #NETFLIX ( $NFLX).
These expensive growth companies from various industries have low debt/equity ratios. We like them
all as long-term investments.
Apple’s revenue by segment: iPad: $26.69B, iPhone: $201.18B, Mac: $29.98B, Service: $96.17B,
and Wearables, Home and Accessories: $37.01B in 2024.
Top 5 companies with EPS surprise over 20%: $OPCH (Healthcare), $BCS (Diversified Bank),
$PLMR (Insurance), $ACMR (Semiconductor), and $NEM (Gold Mining). These costly yet highly
profitable companies span various industries. Growth is good excellent in all these names.
Except for $META, all other six Magnificent Seven stocks are trading below their 200-day moving
average. We see value in $GOOGL, $NVDA, and $META, but caution is advised for the rest. Valuations
have decreased significantly, with potential for further correction.
10. Barclays ADR (BCS) (YTD Return 23.79%, Sector => Bank, 3 Year EPS Growth => -6%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 3%)
9. SABESP ADR (SBS) (YTD Return 24.79%, Sector => Utility, 3 Year EPS Growth => 33%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 20%)
8. Newmont (NEM) (YTD Return 25.21%, Sector => Mining-Gold, 3 Year EPS Growth => -3%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 12%)
7. Palomar (PLMR) (YTD Return 25.23%, Sector => Insurance, 3 Year EPS Growth => 37%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 26%)
6. Aris Water (ARIS) (YTD Return 31.67%, Sector => Pollution Control, 3 Year EPS Growth => 32%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 23%)
5. Alamos Gold (AGI) (YTD Return 35.46%, Sector => Mining-Gold, 3 Year EPS Growth => 36%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 48%)
4. Futu Hldgs ADR (FUTU) (YTD Return 37.34%, Sector => Finance-Invest Bnk, 3 Year EPS Growth => 36%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 26%)
3. Option Care (OPCH) (YTD Return 51.06%, Sector => Medical-Services, 3 Year EPS Growth => 25%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 12%)
2. ACM Research (ACMR) (YTD Return 76.62%, Sector => Semi Equip, 3 Year EPS Growth => 67%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 47%)
1. Root (ROOT) (YTD Return 107.87%, Sector => Insurance-Prop, 3 Year EPS Growth => 0%, 3-Year Sales Growth => 52%)
Chevron ( $CVX), ExxonMobil ( $XOM), Occidental ( $OXY), and Chord Energy ( $CHRD).
All are undervalued and relatively inexpensive. They should be part of a diversified
portfolio. We prefer $CHRD for its superior revenue growth and near-term potential. $CHRD
is a E&P company focuses on oil production in the Williston Basin. The company owns 1.3 million
acres between North Dakota and Montana, with oil constituting 61% of total production. Oil
revenues make up 97% of total revenue due to very low realized prices for natural gas and NGLs
in the region. @WarrenBuffett holds significant investments in $OXY and $CVX.
As of March 2025, these are the top stocks in Berkshire's portfolio by number of shares, based on 13F
1. Bank of America (BAC), 680.2 million
2. Coca-Cola (KO), 400 million
3. Kraft Heinz (KHC), 325.6 million
4. Apple (AAPL), 300 million
5. Occidental Petroleum (OXY), 265 million
6. American Express (AXP), 151.6 million
7. SiriusXM (SIRI), 119.8 million
8. Chevron (CVX), 118.6 million
9. Kroger (KR), 50 million
10. Nu Holdings (NU), 40.2 million
All told, Buffett and his investment team oversee around 50 stocks in Berkshire's equity portfolio,
which is valued at roughly $267 billion.
SkyWest Airlines ( $SKYW) , Universal Health ( #UHS) ,
and Abercrombie & Fitch ( $ANF). These companies have strong EPS and revenue growth,
trading well below their 200-day moving average, with our DCF based calculated fair
value over 20% their current prices. All three are in our watch list.
We analyzed four mega-cap stocks with market caps over $200 billion, P/E ratios
under 15, positive revenue and EPS growth, and over 40 years in business. The
three major banks outperformed the S&P 500 in the past year, while $MRK lagged
significantly, offering a potential opportunity. $JPM performed the best, exceeding
our fair value of $200 per share. $WFC and $MRK appear undervalued with growth potential.
We have always advocated Gold and Silver should be part of any diversified portfolio.
Some of the safest and largest ETFs have barely flinched, despite claims of a market 'panic.'
Long-term investors can remain calm.
5. $ZS Zscaler (5 Year Returns = 370%)
4. $FTNT Fortinet (5 Year Returns = 460%)
3. $NET Cloudflare (5 Year Returns = 480%)
2. $PANW Palo Alto Network (5 Year Returns = 580%)
1. $CRWD CrowdStrike (5 Year Returns = 670%)
$FTNT and $CRWD remain undervalued. The cybersecurity sector will continue to outperform the S&P 500 due to its
dynamic nature and significant R&D investments.
10. $PLTR (YTD = 2.37%)
9. $NLFX (YTD = 0.69%)
8. $META (YTD = -0.32%)
7. $MSFT (YTD = -9.66%)
6. $AAPL (YTD = -10.61%)
5. $AMZN (YTD = -11.88%)
4. $GOOGL (YTD = -14.51%)
3. $MSTR (YTD = -18.98%)
2. $NVDA (YTD = -22.09%)
1. $TSLA (YTD = -40.74%)
Day like today might be a good day to invest in semiconductors, especially in companies like
#Nvidia ( $NVDA), #Broadcom ( $AVGO ), and #TaiwanSemiconductor ( $TSM ), if you haven't
already. See the valuation below; each company is growing revenue by over 20%, with NVIDIA
growing three times faster than the others. At an EV/Sales under 5, NVIDIA is a bargain,
and such opportunities won't last long as the pendulum swings back.
Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has shown
significant market growth, reflected in its Earnings Yield, Dividend Yield, and
Earnings comparisons.
The global market sector with $123.6T total global equity market cap. information Tech, Financials,
Industrials, Discretionary, and Health Care are top 5 sectors. Last 10 years, IT has raised to the
top and pattern will continue.
Fed Chair Powell stated last week that the #Economy is still in good shape. Despite moderating
consumer spending and high uncertainty, he expects the Fed to be patient with rates. #markets
now anticipate three rate cuts in 2025, up from none. We believe, barring a significant #inflation
spike from #tariffs , the Fed is likely to cut rates two or three times this year, especially
if the labor market weakens.
$JEPI, $JEPQ, $SPYI, $BKLN, $SRLN, and $QYLD are the top 6 ETFs paying monthly dividends with
annual yields above 7%, currently trading below their 200-day moving average. Each has Assets Under
Management (AUM) exceeding $3 billion USD. Most have expense ratios below 1%. A mix can provide
solid monthly returns. Ideally, RSI should be at or below 30 for good buying opportunities,
or a dollar-cost averaging strategy may be better.
1. #Health Care - (8.5%)
2. #Consumer Staples - (5.8%)
3. #Materials - (4.3%)
4. #RealEstate - (4.2%)
5. #Energy - (1.6%)
6. #Industrials - (1.5%)
7. #Utilities - (1.4%)
8. #Financials - (1.4%)
9. #Communication - (0.1%)
10. #S&P500 - (-2.0%)
11. #Information Tech - (-7.8%)
12. #Consumer Discretionary - (-10.7%)
Amid a potentially slowing economy and rising policy uncertainty, markets are reacting cautiously.
The S&P 500 is down 2% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq is down 6%. After two years of 20%+ returns, a
consolidation period was likely due, and markets remain orderly. Notable market rotations show investors
adopting defensive positions, with leadership from recession-proof sectors like health care and consumer
staples. Lagging sectors include technology (led by #Apple, #Microsoft, #NVIDIA) and consumer discretionary
(led by #Amazon, #Tesla), which previously saw strong momentum and valuation increases.
9. #CORSAIR Gaming Inc. ( $CRSR) 77.6%
8. #XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV) 81.8%
7. #Root Inc. ( $ROOT) 86.2%
6. #hims & Hers Health Inc. ( $HIMS) 86.4%
5. #Tuya Inc. ( $TUYA) 89.9%
4. H&E Equipment Services Inc. ( $HEES) 95.8%
3. #Grail Inc. ( $GRAL) 116.0%
2. #fuboTV Inc. ( $FUBO) 140.4%
1. #VNET Group Inc. ( $VNET) 147.4%
Costco reported an EPS of $4.02, up 8% year over year, but below the $4.09 estimate. Net sales
increased 9.1% to $62.53 billion, slightly above the $62.019 billion forecast. Same-store sales
grew 6.8%, surpassing the 6.4% prediction. E-commerce sales rose 20.9%. Food and fresh foods
account for over half of Costco's sales. Analysts predict 10% earnings growth for 2025 and 2026
despite a challenging environment. Year to date, Costco stock is up 12%, while the S&P 500 is
down over 2%. Segment numbers follow. A comparison with #Walmart and #Kroger we will present
soon.
Five #technology #stocks with 3x returns compared to the S&P 500's 100% over 5 years: leaders from the
same sector, different industries, and strong long-term #investments.
1. #Spotify ( $SPOT) - 290% returns over 5 years.
2. #InterDigital ( $IDCC) - 330% returns over 5 years.
3. #Fortinet ( $FTNT) - 360% returns over 5 years.
4. #KLA Corp ( $KLAC) - 362% returns over 5 years.
5. #Dell ( $DELL) - 365% returns over 5 years.
Per our #AI engine and fair value calculations, all are fairly valued, but #dell offers deep value with a P/E under 15.
Research indicates the obesity treatment market was valued at $37.4 billion in 2023 and $47.4 billion
in 2024, projected to reach $471.1 billion by 2032. The top 5 companies are #NovoNordisk ( $NVO), Eli #Lilly
( $LLY), #viking ( $VKNG) , #himss ( $HIMS), and #Amgen ( $AMGN). Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are expected to
dominate, with #wegovy forecasted to earn $23 billion and #Zepbound $22.7 billion by 2030. HIMS focuses on
personalized #semaglutide doses, while Amgen's #MariTide is projected to generate $43.3 million, $999 million,
and $2.47 billion. We favor Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and HIMS as long-term investments in this sector. Detailed
data in chart below. Our view is #AI, #Defense, and #obesity are growth engines for the next decade.
#Exxon ( $XOM) , #Merck ( $MRK), #Alphabet ( $GOOGL), #TaiwanSemi ( $TSM), and #novonordisk ( $NVO),
all with market caps exceeding $200 billion. Each has a positive margin of safety (EPS) and a low
historical P/E ratio. These globally impactful names across various industries are among the most
undervalued stocks according to our engine within our target buy range.
Our #AI engine identified three top companies from different industries with a market cap over $500 billion,
each growing EPS and Sales Q/Q by more than 20%. These are excellent long-term investment options.
1. Eli #Lilly & Company ( $LLY )
2. #Meta ( $META )
3. #NVIDIA ( $NVDA )
The market is in correction; buy cautiously and spread purchases over time for effective dollar-cost averaging.
Urban Outfitters ($URBN), TJX Companies ( $TJX), and Lululemon ( $LULU). All three are strong brands with
wide moats. We prefer $URBN and $LULU.
$URBN has the lowest P/E at just under 14, with a solid margin of safety on EPS and FCF. $LULU shows
strong growth in revenue and profit.
We’ll wait for a correction and aim to buy near or below the 200-day moving average. See numbers below
as generated by our #AI engine.
$GOOGL, $TSLA, $MSFT, $AAPL, $META, $AMZN, $NVDA vs. $SPY. Except for $META, all are down, with
$TSLA losing the most, followed by $NVDA and $GOOGL. As predicted, 2025 will favor stock pickers.
Top 6 Social Media Stocks Analysis: $META, $SNAP, $PINS, $YELP, $MTCH, and $BILI.
Our top pick is $META due to strong EPS and revenue growth, with over 40% margin of safety on
both EPS and FCF. $YELP and $MTCH also perform well, but only $META has delivered real returns
to investors in the past 5 years. The market is volatile, so proceed with caution. Detailed
figures for all six are below.
#Tradeweb builds and operates electronic marketplaces for fixed income, money #markets,
and #equities, connecting 3,000 institutional, retail, and corporate clients worldwide.
In 2024, Tradeweb's earnings per share and revenue both surged 29% to record highs.
Average daily trading volume exceeded $2.2 trillion for the year, with a 36.7% increase
in Q4. Adjusted #EBITDA margin rose 91 basis points to 53.3%. Q4 growth slowed, but
revenue still jumped 25% year-over-year to $463.3 million, and earnings rose 19% to
76 cents per share. For Q1 2025, analysts predict a 19% earnings increase to 84 cents
per share, with full-year forecasts at 16.5% growth to $3.40 per share. The average
analyst target for $TW stock dropped to $148.13 in February. Tradeweb gains from
long-term trends in electronic #bond markets. The stock has risen nearly 28%, including
a 3% gain year-to-date. It's an interesting stock, but trade cautiously due to market
uncertainty.
#Nvidia ( $NVDA), #Tesla ( $TSLA), #Apple ( $AAPL), #Microsoft ( $MSFT), and #Meta ( $META).
The most active stock today is NVIDIA ($NVDA) with a trading volume of $47.833B, followed by
Tesla ($TSLA) and Apple ($AAPL).
Apart from $META, all appear overvalued per Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculations based on EPS
and FCF. These are great companies, but only META offers a margin of safety. Tread cautiously,
as the market may face a correction; computing margin of safety, long-term investment, and
diversification are key.
SolarEdge ( $SEDG), Enphase ( $ENPH), Sunrun ( $RUN) , First Solar ( $FSLR) , Emeren ( $SOL ).
Only #FirstSolar seems a viable business in the solar industry and market. First Solar with a P/E of
11, EPS growth of 55%, and revenue growth of 26%, appears well-positioned. It offers an excellent
margin of safety per EPS calculations. Aside from First Solar, we'll avoid other names in this sector
and wait even for a better entry point for $FSLR, pending the administration's new renewable energy
policies.
Top 6 #airline Companies: Delta ( $DAL), United ( $UAL), American ( $AAL), JetBlue ( $JBLU),
Ryanair ( $RYAAY), and Alaska ( $ALK).
Ryanair stands out. Despite a -14% return over the past 12 months, it offers the best value
among the six airlines. With strong top and bottom line growth, Ryanair provides the greatest
margin of safety across all metrics.
United AIRLINES , Alaska , and Delta Airlines have delivered the best returns in the past 12 months,
largely due to turnaround stories, especially United. We like them all, but Ryanair’s P/E of just 6
makes it the most compelling. Below detail chart gives crucial information for informed decision
making.
NVIDIA's fourth-quarter earnings showed:
- $39.3B revenue, up 89%, beat by $1B.
- $24B operating income, up 77%.
- $22B net income, up 72%.
- $0.89 adjusted diluted EPS, up 72%.
- $0.80 GAAP diluted EPS, up 80%.
- $15.5B FCF, up 38%, down 7% sequentially.
- 73.5% gross margin.
- Q1 revenue guidance: $43B.
- Q1 guidance implies $22.9B net income at 15% tax rate.
The 3-year EPS growth rate reflects a company's average annual earnings per share increase
over three years, providing a reliable, long-term view of profitability and growth consistency
for investment decisions. Essentially, the bottom line for three years.
From the chart, $META, $NVDA, and $AMZN stand out as leaders.
Data Center market growth between 2022 and 2027 is expected to rise over 225%, boosting AI,
land leases, labor, and power sectors in the United States, benefiting local economies.
Wynn Resorts ( $WYNN), MGM Resorts ( $MGM), PENN Entertainment ( $PENN), Caesars Entertainment
( $CZR), Boyd Gaming ( $BYD), and DraftKings ( $DKNG).
Boyd Gaming offers the best value; others seem expensive relative to growth. MGM and Wynn Resorts
face EPS growth issues. DraftKings' last quarter was lackluster but has a solid safety margin.
PENN Entertainment's EPS and revenue growth are weak. Overall, this sector lacks standout
performers—mostly a wait-and-see situation.
1. Apple ($AAPL)
2. Alphabet ($GOOGL)
3. Nvidia ($NVDA)
4. Meta Platforms ($META)
5. JPMorgan Chase ($JPM)
6. Visa ($V)
7. Exxon Mobil ($XOM)
8. Chevron ($CVX)
9. Microsoft ($MSFT)
10. Bank of America ($BAC)
1. Interactive Brokers ( $IBKR ) - Financials
2. Zoetis ( $ZTS ) - Healthcare
3. Altria Group ( $MO ) - Consumer Staples
4. United Parcel Service ( $UPS ) - Industrials
5. Barclays ( $BCS ) - Banking
These industry leaders offer a strong margin of safety, ideal for a diversified portfolio in
uncertain times. Notably, $IBKR, $ZTS, and $BCS exhibit solid EPS and revenue growth.
Surprisingly, $INTC offers the best returns in this sector for 2025, driven by speculators.
1. Tesla, $TSLA: -21%
2. MicroStrategy, $MSTR: -17%
3. Broadcom, $AVGO: -13%
4. Nvidia, $NVDA: -9%
5. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -8%
6. Amazon, $AMZN: -7%
7. Microsoft, $MSFT: -5%
8. Meta, $META: +7%
9. Palantir, $PLTR: +13%
10. Intel, $INTC: +14%
vs. $SPY: +1%. More upsets expected in 2025; AI models predict a topsy-turvy year.
Meta ( $META), HSBC Holdings
( $HSBC), Exxon Mobil ( $XOM), Progressive ( $PGR), and Siemens ( $SIEGY). These firms have wide moats,
span various industries, and boast strong businesses with decades of excellence. Progressive and Meta
show robust EPS and revenue growth, while Exxon Mobil's growth is slower, yet valuable in a diversified
portfolio. This list comes from our AI engine. Tread cautiously, as the market may face a correction;
computing margin of safety, long-term investment, and diversification are key.
Three Consumer Discretionary and Household Durables companies with low P/E and 10%+ Revenue and EPS growth shortlisted by our AI tool. These companies have excellent margin of safety and
$10+ billion in Market Cap. All are from the same industry so one can pick one of them or equal contributions in each.
1. Carlisle Companies ($CSL) - P/E = 17.1, PEG Ratio = 0.21, Revenue Growth = 10.1%, Basic EPS Growth = 83.6%
2. PulteGroup ($PHM) - P/E = 6.7, PEG Ratio = 0.27, Revenue Growth = 11.7%, Basic EPS Growth = 25.7%
3. NVR ($NVR) - P/E = 12.6, PEG Ratio = 1.34, Revenue Growth = 10.4%, Basic EPS Growth = 10.0%
No surprise, tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ( $QQQ) has outperformed S&P 500 ( $SPY), Berkshire Hathaway
( $BRK.B), and Dow Jones 30 ( $DIA) ETFs. Will this trend continue? We believe so; AI and technology
will lead, with artificial intelligence drastically impacting our daily lives. Stay invested.
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has been the first big usage of AI. However,
the next major wave may be agentic AI. Generative AI uses generative software models
to create text, image, video, or audio content in response to a user prompt. An
example would be asking ChatGPT a question and getting a text response. With agentic
AI, meanwhile, automated AI agents will go out and complete assigned tasks autonomously
without constant human supervision.
Three companies we feel are leading in this sector are:
1. UiPath ($PATH) - Agent Builder, Agent Orchestration, Agent Designer
2. Google ($GOOGL) - Gemini, Agentspace, Jules
3. Salesforce ($CRM)- Agentforce driven by Mulesoft, Tableau, and Slack.
Below are the key valuation as we monitor the iGenerative AI exciting field in near future.
Only META outperforms the S&P 500, while the rest lag as we enter the last week of
February 2025. Stocks include $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $NVDA, and $TSLA.
The mega-cap tech trade was vulnerable entering 2025. After returning over 150% in 2023
and 2024, valuations were high, though not as extreme as the 1999 Tech Bubble, supported
by strong earnings growth.
Beyond valuation, these global firms face tariff and trade risks, particularly in semiconductors
and hardware. In 2025, earnings growth is expected to balance across tech and non-tech sectors,
fostering broader market leadership.
Top 5 companies with low Price/Sales ratios and market caps over $100 billion in February 2025:
The S&P 500's 5-year return is 95%. Compare this to five companies with low Price/Sales:
5. @sanofi ( $SNY) - 16% 5-year return
4. @Citigroup ( $C) - 43% 5-year return
3. @HSBC Holdings ( $HSBC) - 86% 5-year return
2. @GoldmanSachs ( $GS) - 102% 5-year return
1. @Salesforce( $CRM) - 64% 5-year return
All of them interesting companies with good balance sheets. $GS and $CRM look extra strong.
We'll see how they perform for the rest of 2025.
Top Mega Enterprises Undervalued by Free Cash Flow:
Our FCF research identifies these five large, undervalued enterprises:
5. Visa ($V) - FCF Undervalue 28%
4. Exxon Mobil ($XOM) - FCF Undervalue 37%
3. Mastercard ($MA) - FCF Undervalue 48%
2. Alibaba ($BABA) - FCF Undervalue 54%
1. Salesforce ($CRM) - FCF Undervalue 63%
All have wide moats and over 20 years of history. Our analysis shows $CRM is significantly undervalued, with a Piotroski Score of 9, 77% gross profit margin, 133% EPS growth, and 9.5% revenue growth. In #CRM, @Salesforce leads. We consider $CRM undervalued today and will monitor it closely.
8. Google (GOOGL) - AI, Search, YouTube, Cloud
7. Tesla (TSLA) - Self-Driving Vehicles, Robotics
6. SoFi (SOFI) - Fintech, Loans
5. Nvidia (NVDA) - AI, Cloud Infrastructure
4. Archer (ACHR) - Aviation, Defense
3. IonQ (IONQ) - Quantum Computing
2. Upstart (UPST) - Fintech, AI
1. Palantir (PLTR) - AI, Government
CoStar Group ( $CSGP), CBRE Group ( $CBRE), Zillow Group ( $Z ), Jones Lang LaSalle ( $JLL), and Newmark
Group ( $NMRK). Only CBRE outperforms the market ETF. With a P/E over 40, it appears pricey. Jones Lang
seems fairly priced. Given the slowing economy, we'd avoid this sector currently.
Western Digital ( $WDC ), HP Enterprise ( $HPE ), Seagate ( $STX ), NetApp ( $NTAP ),
Pure Storage ( $PSTG ), Dell ( $DELL ), and Super Micro ( $SMCI ).
$SMCI stands out due to $NVDA clusters it's building. Despite accounting challenges, we l
ike its numbers. As NASDAQ compliance issues resolve this month, delisting seems unlikely,
paving the way for an upside revaluation. Super Micro Computer's shares trade at a forward
P/E ratio of 11.3X, making it a cheap #AI-focused hardware stock with strong fundamentals.
Potential for continued upside exists if the company avoids further issues and performs
well in the server market. Still, tread carefully due to risks.
Top 5 IT Consulting and Services Companies vs S&P 500: IT (Gartner), INFY (Infosys), IBM (IBM),
CTSH (Cognizant), and ACN (Accenture). IT (Gartner) has outpaced the S&P 500, while the others
are less convincing. They all appear expensive based on P/E and growth ratios. We should wait and
watch; Gartner consistently looks most promising in this sector.
V (Visa), MA (Mastercard), and AXP (American Express).
Besides AXP, both V and MA have lagged behind SPY in returns.
With 25% EPS growth and 9% revenue growth, AXP runs efficiently, no wonder it's been
Warren Buffett's favorite processor for years. With the lowest P/E and room to grow, we like it the most.
BRK.B (Berkshire), GOOGL (Google), AAPL (Apple), MSFT (Microsoft), and NVDA (Nvidia).
Comparing their 5 key financial ratios for valuation. All have a good moat, except for the
diminishing effect of AAPL. Net Income Margin > 25% for all, showing their profitability.
$NVDA's revenue and EPS growth is extraordinary. All are great companies and long term
investments. We see value in BRK.B and GOOGL.
$SEZL 599% (Sezzle, Sector: Financials)
$RDW 708% (Redwire, Sector: Industrials)
$SMR 748% (NuScale Power, Sector: Industrials)
$ASTS 802% (AST SpaceMobile, Sector: Communications)
$RGTI 821% (Rigetti Computing, Sector: IT)
$QUBT 831% (Quantum Computing, Sector: IT)
$MESO 837% (Mesoblast, Sector: Healthcare)
$APP 965% (AppLovin, Sector: IT)
$ROOT 1431% (Root, Sector: Financials)
$WGS 1639% (GeneDx Holdings, Sector: Healthcare)
JPM (JPMorgan), WFC (Wells Fargo), and BAC (Bank of America).
Except for JPM, BAC and WFC have lagged behind $SPY. JPM has strong 5-year returns.
Large banks' P/E should be under 12 with top and bottom-line growth over 9%; besides JPM,
others have faltered and all three seem overpriced.
Top 12 Tech Companies with returns at least 3 times that of the S&P 500 (97%) in the past 5 years:
$HUBS 314%
$DELL 342%
$SPOT 359%
$FTNT 361%
$PANW 389%
$HIMS 485%
$CRWD 599%
$ANET 685%
$AVGO 754%
$NET 894%
$SMCI 1408%
$NVDA 1775%
All are quality enterprises selling at premium prices.
HD (Home Depot), LOW (Lowe's), and FND (Floor & Decor). All traded similarly to the S&P 500 (SPY).
They look expensive, with LOW performing best over 5 years. P/E is high, and top and bottom line growth is nonexistent.
Avoid the sector.
AMZN, MSFT, META, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, and TSLA together make up 28% of the S&P 500.
Their performance largely dictates market direction. All have outperformed the
S&P 500 over five years, with TSLA and NVDA providing returns over 5x compared to SPY.
Are markets vulnerable to these seven companies, or are they "too big to fail"?
Do they have value and a moat? Apart from AAPL, which seems directionless, the
others have wide moats. Do they offer investable value? Only GOOGL appears to,
with its wide moat and good valuation. Its current dip is due to pending
investigations into search, data, and size, but these distractions may prove
insignificant, mirroring MSFT's experience in the 2000s.
Here's an interesting table based on several key factors, which we will monitor
and update regularly.
BTI (British Tobacco), MO (Altria Group), IMBBY (Imperial Brands), and TPB (Turning Point Brands).
TPB's growth is extraordinarily exceptional but it's the most expensive. MO and BTI both offer
excellent dividends over 7% but no growth.
Although tobacco is harmful, it remains in demand. We prefer TPB; since our first
recommendation in summer 2024, it has risen by 75%, and this trend will continue.
RCL (Royal Caribbean), HLT (Hilton), and BKNG (Booking) all beat the S&P 500 by 1.5 times or more.
Of these, RCL shows higher value and extraordinary EPS growth and low PE. BKNG has the highest Return on
Capital Invested (ROIC), but this may not hold for the next 5 years. At current levels, we favor RCL.
People are spending on vacations, benefiting the sector overall. Should be part of every
diversified portfolio.
CELH (Celsius Holdings), COKE (Coca-Cola), PEP (Pepsi), FIZZ (National Beverage),
MNST (Monster Beverage), and KDP (Dr Pepper). CELH, COKE, and FIZZ have consistently
outperformed the S&P 500. Among these, we favor COKE for its steady growth,
offering 4x returns over the past 5 years compared to the S&P 500. FIZZ and CELH are good
companies but come with higher risks. No wonder COKE is a major holding in
Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, as Warren Buffett appreciates its stability in
both turbulent and calm times.
PWR (Quanta Services), EME (EMCOR Group), FIX (Comfort Systems), STRL (Sterling Infrastructure), AGX (Argan).
With over 25% revenue growth, PWR and FIX are ideal candidates. FIX's EPS growth has been strong.
As manufacturing increases in the USA, consider a diversified portfolio with these or similar investments.
The top three AI chip companies are $AMD, $NVDA, and $AVGO. We analyze
profitability vs. forward PE to assess the balance of growth vs. value for
risk assessment. For long-term investors, all look great, we prefer $NVDA as the
top AI chip company, it very high forward PE but so is its net income margin.
Growth has always a price to pay.
Top 4 Card Processors in the world: V (Visa), AXP (American Express), MA (MasterCard), and DFS (Discover).
We compared them against SPY (S&P 500) ETF for a 10-year period. All outperformed the S&P 500 by
at least 1.5x, with MA providing a 4X return.
Investing in these card processors would likely yield better results than ETFs or mutual
funds over time. Patience in holding top-performing companies for at least 10 years can lead to
superior returns.
AAPL, META, AMZN, and GOOGL - Here is a classic evaluation. All seem expensive; growth
numbers for META look excellent. $AAPL, with negative growth, is lagging behind.
Top 4 Software Platform Companies with huge AI implications: NOW (ServiceNow),
ADBE (Adobe), CRM (Salesforce), and WDAY (Workday) are leading software companies
with significant AI implications. These companies benefit from AI.
NOW has the best five-year returns, while WDAY has lagged despite its prominence in
HR software. We are not recommending any of these 4 for investments, just analyzing
five-year returns.
Comparing Revenue and Earnings growth vs. P/E for top 3 cloud security companies:
PANW (Palo Alto Networks), CRWD (CrowdStrike), and FTNT (Fortinet). All three are excellent,
but CRWD's EPS growth is astronomical. Despite last year's outages, the company
has since performed well.
We favor FTNT for:
* A recurring revenue model that drives consistent growth and improves financial predictability.
* Strong cash flow and margins that balance financial performance.
Gilead, Amgen and AbbVie:
Key growth and profitability factors:
- P/E Non-GAAP(FWD) < 20
- Price/Book < 2
- Price/FCF < 10
- Price/Sales < 1.5
- EV/EBITDA < 15
AMD reported its quarterly results recently. Here's a comparison of AMD, NVDA, and AVGO:
Key growth and profitability factors:
- Revenue 3-Year CAGR > 20% for consistent growth
- EPS Diluted 3-Year CAGR > 15% for consistent growth
- Net Income Margin > 20% for profitability
All have high P/E ratios, indicating a premium. NVDA is the top semiconductor pick due to its earnings and wide moat, shown by its growth and net income.
AMZN (Amazon) beat on most metrics with a 61% surge in operating income, leading to a profit of
$1.86 per share, above the $1.48 estimate. Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue increased 19% to $28.8B.
Net income rose 48% to $10.6B. Online store sales grew 7.1% to $75.56B, physical stores sales up 8.3%
to $5.58B. Third-party seller services sales up 9%, subscription services up 9.7% to $11.51B, slightly
below the $11.58B estimate.
Amazon forecasts Q1 net sales between $151B and $155.5B, a 5-9% growth, under the $158B estimate.
Operating income expected at $14B to $18B, with the midpoint $1B higher than last year.
Awesome quarter but weak guidance.
Top 5 Biotech Companies by market cap: $ABBV (AbbVie), $AMGN (Amgen), $GILD (Gilead Sciences),
$REGN (Regeneron), and $CSL (CSL Ltd.). Biotech companies generally command high valuations due
to future growth potential. We evaluated these five key parameters:
* Gross Profit CAGR (5 years) > 20% for consistency
* Free Cash Flow Yield > 5% for cash generation
* Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) > 20% for investment return
* Gross Profit Margin > 50% for top-line efficiency
* EBIT Margin > 50% for bottom-line strength
$GILD Gilead Sciences stands out:
* VEKLURY sales grew 9% to $692 million in Q3 2024 due to increased Covid-19 hospitalizations.
* LIVDELZI shows promise for long-term growth, with FDA Accelerated Approval for PBC and potential
EMA approval in Q1 2025.
* TRODELVY sales increased by 17% year-over-year, with potential expansion into ES-SCLC and other
Trop-2 expressing solid tumors.
COST vs. WMT vs. TGT - these three are the top physical retailers in the US. To understand
which might offer value, compare their top and bottom lines with their current price/earnings (P/E)
ratio. Target appears most valuable, but its top-line growth is lacking. Costco and Walmart show
excellent growth and foot traffic, but they are expensive for investors. Better to wait and watch
or consider other retailers.
Comparing top and bottom lines for the Magnificent Seven companies:
1) $NVDA leads with EPS growth of 235% and revenue growth of 152%. No worries here.
2) $META shows strong growth with a 22% top line and 62% bottom line, generating significant free cash flow. No problem for long-term investors.
3) $AMZN grows its top line by 12% and bottom line by 144%, indicating successful monetization of past investments. It is a decent investment.
4) $GOOGL has a 14% top line growth and 40% bottom line growth, though it missed Q4 EPS by 2 cents. It might be the most undervalued.
5) $MSFT maintains steady growth with 15% top line and 12% bottom line, but seems overpriced at current levels.
6) $AAPL shows little growth in both top and bottom lines, yet its stock has returned 60% in the past year, likely due to $90 billion in buybacks rather than strategic growth.
7) $TSLA is losing appeal with declining top and bottom lines, making it the riskiest investment among the seven.
The top cloud services providers are GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN. AMZN holds nearly 60% of the cloud market.
We consider five key financial ratios: Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, Price/Free Cash Flow, and Price/Cash
for valuation. All seem expensive, but $GOOGL is the cheapest by free cash flow, suggesting potential value.
AMZN's e-commerce impacts its low P/Sales but high P/Free Cash. $GOOGL is also cheapest by book value.
MSFT is expensive across all metrics.
Below is a list of the top 31 non-technology companies in diversified sectors that have outperformed the
S&P 500 over the past 5 years. S&P 500 has returned 97% in past 5 years.
All these companies have a wide moat.
We use data science to analyze 100+ parameters daily to identify true winners with growth potential.
$GOOGL - Google reported mixed Q4 earnings with an EPS beat but a revenue miss.
Free cash flow surged 214% Y/Y, suggesting potential for increased stock buybacks in 2025.
Google's Cloud operating income has surged. Continued AI spending and strong growth in
core businesses. Free cash flow margins are expanding. Among Mega 7 companies, it's the
most undervalued. See below for segment contributions to future growth.
Top 6 Apparel Retail Stocks: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Lululemon (LULU), American Eagle
Outfitters (AEO), Urban Outfitters (URBN), The Gap (GAP), and Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT).
Abercrombie has shown the best growth in the past year. It's a tough sector, but all these
companies have shown excellent debt management. However, Abercrombie stands out with its wide
moat and teenage appeal. The margin of safety is poor for all these stocks. We will watch this
sector closely for future opportunities.
Abercrombie has shown the best 5-year return compared to all top apparel retailers, and this
trend might continue due to growth and a wide moat with young shoppers.
Top 4 Mega Tech Companies: Meta (META), Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL).
These are the mega 4 software & hardware companies by market cap. We tested them with 20 key
parameters for valuation. Meta had an exceptional last quarter and we expect growth to continue
with strong 2025 guidance. Google and Meta have exceptional gross profit margins and growth.
Apple is losing steam with declining iPhone sales. Microsoft is growing by acquiring other
companies rather than innovating. One commonality among these four is their huge buybacks,
which may not be the best use of cash. Otherwise, all are great companies; we favor Meta
and Google.
Top 4 Semiconductor Materials & Equipment: ASML, Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials
(AMAT), and KLA Corp (KLAC). All four excel according to our 20-factor criteria. If choosing one,
it would be ASML. Despite broader challenges, its €36B backlog suggests recovery in H2 2025, with
strong growth expected through 2030. ASML leads in lithography, especially EUV, securing market
dominance with solid financial health. ASML's growth path appears more certain. This is a long-term
investment projection, not a trading idea.
Top 11 technology companies with returns over 300% compared to the S&P 500 in the past 5
years: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Lam Research (LRCX), Cadence Design (CDNS), HubSpot (HUBS),
Fortinet (FTNT), Dell (DELL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Arista Networks
(ANET), Broadcom (AVGO), and Cloudflare (NET). Security and semiconductor companies have performed
remarkably well. We believe these will continue to grow and be excellent long-term investments.
Top 7 Companies in the Pet Sector: Chewy (CHWY), PetMed Express (PETS), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF),
Zoetis (ZTS), Freshpet (FRPT), and Central Garden & Pet (CENT). All appear expensive, but the sector is growing
due to an aging population and pet love, increasing demand for pet food and medicine. Among these, we favor
Zoetis for its consistent growth, profitability, and manageable debt, despite its high PE ratio. It's a safer
choice in uncertain times.
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